Hi, these are just ideas not recommendations, sometimes I trade my ideas, sometimes I don’t.
Always remember, yours is the responsibility for your trades,
Good luck,
Erick



Thursday, December 22, 2011

Dow 13000 ???

This is an excerpt from an email I got last Tuesday from one of those colleagues that keep pushing newsletters:

“No, I haven’t been hitting the eggnog early this year! The table is now set for a fierce rally, and it’s time to claim your spot at the feast or get left behind. That’s why you are about to hear me say something I say very rarely… It’s time to back up the truck and buy our top game-changing stocks for 2012. We’re seeing some dramatic changes in this market that signal we’re about to see a rally that will take us all the way to Dow 13,000.”



So what do you think, Dow 13000 or Dow 8000 some months from now?


By points:
B ended at 11231
Possible C conclusions are A (1576) x 0.618 + 11231= around 12200
A (1576) + 11231 = around 12800

By time:
Either C ends this week or 1.618 x 25 from Nov 25 = around 4 – 7 January 2012
Logical thinking: 12800 would retrace 1 completely, 12200 is a 72% retracement of 1, 12200 is preferred
Conclusion: if 12200 is going to be the end, either the markets will keep zigzagging for 3 or 4 weeks or start going down immediately, maybe it’s time to buy some VXX calls.







Sorry for not posting most often, I have a very demanding day job
Feliz Navidad a todos,

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Wave 2 when are you ending

Both the Dow and the Wilshire produced yesterday P&F breakdown, the SP was already in bearish mode.

The Dow will have to touch the 12250 level on an up day to reverse the bearish signal.



The Dow traded below 12000 yesterday but managed to close above that level.
For the past 6 days both 12200 and 12000 were touched 3 times, the price-volume bar confirms the importance of this range.


The flag formation of the Dow has a bullish connotation, a close above the upper line will produce a top price around 12500. Personally and looking at the inability of the Dow to hold below 12000, I think the end of this reversal that started on October 4 will be around 12500. Close to that level I will add to my short positions but I really would be very satisfied if the Dow starts wave 3 without reaching it.


Ya veremos el cierre de hoy,

Buenos Dias,

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Again wave 2

Waiting for the end of this 2 wave could be an exercise of patience, I am completely and 100% ultrashort and with some puts to add a little interest, so my only action is trying to figure the end.

If there's some true in the “fractality” ?? form of markets, wave 2 looks at its end.


A relationship of equals between a and c looks improbable since wave c would end above 13000 so a 0.618 is with some high probability. That would put Dow at 12400 at the end of c. A more or less truncated c is in agreement with c of 2 of 1.


Time relationship, internal and external trendlines, put the c below 12400 at the end of this week or at 12500 at year's end.


And last but not least, the Dollar can make a last push before retracing and then not look back for a long time, the inverse relationship between markets and Dollar could work like this.


Buenas tardes,

Thursday, December 1, 2011

1-12-11

I am more or less convinced on this double zigzag because of the month we are, the markets should hold or maybe rally in December. I posted briefly on a market rebound on Nov. 28.

Now, I was expecting the market to drop almost to 11000 because of channel measuring techniques since the 500+ channel broke down near 11600. The market hold above an important internal trend line and that did not work.

Guideline for wave 2 retracing up to 81% put the final c around 12,400, first the market must break above an important down trend line that was topped yesterday.

A triangle is unlikely in wave 2 unless is a complex formation, if that is the case we will have a long time without trend.

So what will be the level of blue b before the final push up to 12400?

Also, can this be a possibility ??

Ya veremos,
buen dia a todos,

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About Me

I am a civil engineer who likes charts, to me, speculating in the markets is both a hobby and a second profession and in my view the stock market is the most honest environment, since it is only your knowledge and preparation that matters. I live, and work in the construction industry, in the Dominican Republic. I read and answer all my mail so please feel free to write sternloinaz@gmail.com Thanks, Erick