Technical Analysis of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) and long term bonds - Análisis técnico del S&P 500 y de los bonos a 30 años

For over two years the SP500 have been inside a perfect up trending channel until August-September this year when the move began to falter and making the index to break down the lower line.
The index recovered and is now trading in a powerful two year high level, two year highs have different readings, it is true, everybody owning the index is with a profit,  it’s also true that a lot of those people don’t want to lose their benefits.

After the correction in October, the SP its being going up for the last four weeks with an attack angle that may be unsustainable. Most of the time, weekly moves are slow developers; probabilities are that there won’t be a drastic downside this week.  Key levels to watch this week are:  one) the new uptrending line, two) the 1992 level, three) the down channel line in effect since 2013.

October 20 was the date that started this last up trend, the slope is slowing, the weekly advance for the last four weeks is: October 24, 4.12%, October 31, 2.72%, November 7, 0.69%, and last week 0.39%. The key support level for tomorrow is 2026.

A closer look shows 4 days of advance followed by a 4 days pause. It could be a base for resuming the uptrend or a top formation signaling a reversal.  The levels to watch are: 1)If 2040 is surpassed chances are for a new advance, 2) 2035 and 2033 if broken are early warnings.

Long term bonds also trading in a well-defined channel.

Daily chart shows long term bonds in consolidation movement since the end of October, the price is holding above the ma(50) and the support level for tomorrow is 117.83, slightly above the moving average. As prices remain flat the for the last 10 days, the slope is gaining strength

Short term prices in a devastating sideways trend market for a short term trader. The lower highs are trying to break the trading range.

Bonds ended Friday in an uptrend, check the trending lines for any change in the move.

Shalom all,

SP500, LONG TERM BONDS, NOV 13

Ok, here’s what we know 

In closing prices The SP made a new low at 2032.81 today 14:00 pm, so maybe the move from 2044.89 to 2032.81 is not a retracement of the previous 2033.02 – 2044.89 movement but a new downtrend.

If the downtrend from 10 AM to 14PM today is in fact a new down move, there are three key levels

50 % is already breached

I would say 75% at 2041.87 is the last frontier, if surpassed the probabilities are in favor of a return to 2044.89 or upper.

Candles are reaching the 75% retracement level.

Now, you know I only trade long term bonds contracts and SPY options on the long side and short term, so let’s do the same for the bonds with the TLT as proxy.

I would wait for going long bonds tomorrow:

a)      Close up at 10:00 with a smooth first half hour of trading

b)      If starting low, 118.67 should hold

They say you can’t wish the market into action, I say you can but don’t expect your wishes to be granted.

What I wish for tomorrow for TLT

Price over 119.26 and between the 45 degree channels

Let’s wait and see

At 4PM today

30 year bond ask price 141.08

SP500 mini ask 2036

At 9PM today

7 years note offered at 126.17

30 year bond ask price 141.11

SP500 mini ask 2033.75

Good luck all,

Follow Up Noviembre 12,2014

Y lo que estábamos esperando, un retracement de libro seguido por la continuación de la tendencia no se materializó.

Nuestro proxy de lujo, el TLT a las 11:30 penetró la línea de tendencia pero terminó sobre ella, a esa hora todavía podíamos esperar la continuación del uptrend para entrar.

A las 12:00 tanto la línea de tendencia como el soporte al 50% fueron penetrados.

A las 12:30 el 60% también fue penetrado, con lo que se perdió toda esperanza de entrar long a los bonos.  Por lo general si los 60% no resisten, el movimiento vuelve a donde empezó o peor.

TLT cerró los primeros 30 minutos del día con un 59% de avance sobre el día anterior y cerró hoy con una pérdida de 0.08%.

Asimismo el SP500 inauguró hoy con una pérdida de 0.27% pero en el transcurso recuperó casi todo al cerrar con apenas un -0.07%. Su movimiento no permitió establecer un patrón.

Mañana tendremos nuevamente mercado y amplias posibilidades de especular con éxito.
Buena suerte a todos,

Notas y Bonos, 12 Noviembre 11:30

Chance de especular con las notas a 10 años o los bonos a 30 años
Con TLT como proxy

Vamos a ver si la línea de tendencia soporta el precio
30 minutos

30 minutos con candles

A las 11:29 ET
Contrato de las notas de 10 años del tesoro ofertado a: 126’14
Los bonos de 30 ofertado el contrato a: 141’11