The Contrarian Ratios

Traders look at these Ratios in an endless quest to find market direction, the premises are that when the majority of the market participants are thinking in one direction, the market will go the other way.

You can find several interpretations of the ratios, although they are NOT market timing indicators, as contrarian ratios let’s say they put you on alert.

The AAII survey, what the experts say:

When AAII is over 60% bullish, it’s the time you start looking for shorts and closing your longs.  Near 50% some worries. Only guidelines.

The CBOE equity put/call Ratio, what the experts say:

A ratio higher than 1.00 is a buy signal, lower than 0.75 is a sell signal.

You can smooth it with a ema.

Good luck and happy Hanukkah and Christmas

Short time long speculative Idea

Here’s one trying to take advantage of the rebound over the 21 days channel

Trading Ideas Short

The fading volume is the only point in my favor now, maybe wishful thinking?

Trading Ideas Short

Around 10:30 still low momentum, however they don’t decide which way to go.

At the close will have more clarity

Trading Ideas Short

Now you know i like shorting, for shorts i like big cap, big volume, and high volatility. 

FISV volatility is fighting the ma13, today closed above it, with a Market Cap around 79B, volume around 3MM and a 20 day high tested at least 2 times recently, it’s a short candidate.

Anyway if you trade you know it, you win some you lose some, you preserve capital and you move on. Markets are people, thousands of us and we never see the whole history. My setup is more or less this one always. Good luck

2 Shorts 1 Long

Of 1130 stocks with a market cap above 100 MM, average volume over 500K and close over 10, 76% closed positive today, LSXMA is in the 24% that ended lower

TROW closed up with a minimum 0.02% 

CVX closed + 1.19% up with fair volume, needs a little push to regain momentum