Dow Wilder Signals

The Dow Jones is very near two significant points that could mean a reversal of trend.
A 0.63% drop will take the price below the parabolic SAR meaning and end of the uptrend in effect since mid-December. If the crossing of the SAR is followed by a change in the directional indicators, according to Wilder’s suggestion it is a short signal.
A 0.80% or more drop with the Dow below 12565 at the close will signal the crossing of Wilder’s Stop and reverse volatility system signal. Being a continuous system it means closing longs and shorting below that level.
A little far below is a 1.90% Monday’s close below Friday’s level that will reverse the positive 10 day momentum signaling the selling of longs and opening shorts.



Below is my 30 minutes alternate count with Wilder’s volatility Stop and Reverse for Monday.

Alternate 30 minutes count for the Dow

Dow January 26

Well the Dow is only 0.93% of invalidating the 1-2 bearish count, Elliot theory puts form before ratios and the form still looks like a zigzag or double zigzag retracement, we’ll know soon, but it appears that we need a bear miracle to confirm the count.


Check for this 10 day momentum levels in the following days, a 2.41% drop is needed today to reverse momentum, a 2.2% from today’s level will take tomorrow 10 day’s momentum below 0.

Wave 2 rule and the end of it

It’s not a guideline it is a rule: “Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1”, if the Dow crosses the 12876 level, this count is not valid. A mere 1.22% rise in the Dow from Friday’s close will cancel the rule.

Now, the zigzag and double zigzag guidelines place the length of c equal to that of a, this guideline could be consider already fulfilled since the relationship is 0.96 at Friday’s close, a 1:1 amid a-c will put the end of c at 12761.30.


Looking at closing prices and a big zigzag



My 30 mins. preferred count is still valid, the guideline for a extended fifth wave have the 0.382 of the move within wave 4. If green 5 ended last Friday the 0.382 is at 12468, if it ends at 12761 the golden section is at 12483, also the guideline works for the end of 5 red with the 0.682 part within 4 red for an extended red 3.



According to data at indexarb.com, IBM is the highest weight stock in the Dow Jones with a 11.22% almost double of the nearest follower Chevron (CVX) that holds a 6.36% of the Dow. Following Chevron are Caterpillar (CAT) with 6.29%, MacDonalds (MCD) 6.25%, Exxom (XOM) 5.21% and 3m (MMM) with a 5.10% of the Dow.

IBM jumped 4.43% with big volume on Friday after earnings, stopping what looked like a bearish head and shoulder and taking the price above the ma(50) and also accounting for much of the 0.76% Dow Move.




CVX is set to report next Friday, CAT and MMM are scheduled for Thursday 26, and MCD is reporting next Tuesday 24. Any of those heavyweights are going to have big impact in the Dow price so watch for the action.

Dow Jones Wednesday 1/18/2012 3:23 PM

This is my preferred count at this time; wave 2 is going to work us to the end. Of course if the Dow keeps climbing above 12675 we all will find new counts.


Check for a daily close below 12418, that is my trend – changing level.

Nyse Advance Decline Figures

A more or less significant divergence is taking place for the last 2+ months, most of times this divergence signals trouble for the markets ahead.

Dow Update Jan 13

I want to put an end to 2 at 12514.62, this can be the count with a truncated 5 of 5 of c of c of 2 at 12483.62.



Also 12514.62 could be 5 with a 1-2-1-2 downward underway, in that case 12483.62 should hold.
An up trending line with some significance was broken last Friday, but we still need a break below a more important up line and the 12315 ≈ level.
12485 and 12315 are now the focal support & resistance levels.