Es un mercado sobrevendido?, Oversold market?

 

Dicen los expertos que “menos indicadores y mas acción del precio” eso es para entrar ya sea short o long.

Como nosotros solo especulamos con una estricta observación de la volatilidad no entramos a menos que verifiquemos el indicador.

 

 

 

Al cierre de hoy la volatilidad a corto plazo nuevamente cruza sobre 0, indicador de short

 

La aceleración del movimiento a la baja va descendiendo, a pesar que sigue con una aceleración negativa, la velocidad es menor, indicador de no hacer nada

 

 

 

Y por último la divergencia de la volatilidad, es decir su diferencia con la media está altísima.

 

 

 

Por tanto, y basado en estadísticas, mañana no es un día para iniciar una posición ni long ni short

 

Yo hago 2 o tres trades máximo al mes y mantengo la posición 2 o tres días como mucho, la paciencia es la mejor amiga del  short term trader

 

El indicador del mercado que usamos es el SPX , S&P 500 Large Cap, como proxy también puede usarse el SPY, SPDR, S&P 500 ETF

Salud y paz

Swing trading speculation with the volatility

 

I read in the economic calendar that FED chair Powell speaks tomorrow, speeches, announcements and all that come from the FED have the chance of being market movers either side.

 

 

 

I think I’ll wait this one out although the volatility of the market kind of signals an up day

 

Before today’s crossing below 0 line, we’ve had 6 crossing, only two profitable

 

I would like the curve of the volatility MA to start leveling itself, let’s wait

 

 

Sin posición para mañana

 

No hay que “tradear” todos los días, lo que si es importante es ganar en cada trade

La  Fed hará sus anuncios sobre tasa de interés mañana,  por lo general  los días de anuncios son de alta volatilidad y luego se decide mas o menos la dirección del mercado al menos al corto plazo.

 

El short term momentum de la volatilidad sigue sin decidirse, esperamos al cierre mañana y posiblemente entremos, como siempre con un time frame de 2 o 3 días  máximo

 

 

La volatilidad cerca del 2% y nos gustaría que cruzara bajo su ma(21), let’s wait and see

 

 

Volatility going down

We’ll have important announcements for next Wednesday, most of the times the FED rate decision is a market mover. We’ll be out until that.

 

 

Keeping with the volatility indicators, at todays close the short term would be a long indicator, however still over 2%

 

 

 

Let’s wait

Almost 2 years went by

 Almost two years since my last post but I have kept trading actively when my brick and mortar job so permit

 

 Anyway we’re still active and I want to share with you a set of market indicators I’ve developed as time went by.

So let’s start

The first thing I check every night is the economic calendar for the next day, when there is an important event scheduled for the day, like FED or FOMC news, if it’s scheduled for trading hours I try to avoid trading that day

At markets close I check the general volatility of the market, needless to say market volatility is not an indicator for swing trading, however when it is low my trades have more probability of being profitable

Market volatility is dependent of time, my volatility check is short term, like all market price related indicators volatility is lagging to the market, however for going long I prefer my volatility below 2% and if possible below its 21 day MA.

Here is a 5 months volatility chart for you to appreciate the changes in price as related to volatility

 

 

Next I want to check the volatility extremes, very low or very high it’s bound to change

 

 

And last I will check the volatility short term and momentum indicators

 

 

Now, let’s see how this work

We want the short term crossing below 0 for going long, preferable with the momentum below 0 also, but that is an ideal situation so we can take the short crossing alone looking at the others indicators

On april 28 the market closed 2.47% up and the short term volatility indicator crossed below 0, the volatility momentum was above 0

The extreme was very high signaling still turbulence

 

And the volatility percentage was an ugly 2.4% above the ma(21)

 

 

In this circumstance you don’t take the trade, next day the stop loss below the previous low is reached, it would be a losing trade

 

 

More coming……

Shalom