30 minutes into the channel, stop for tomorrow is at 6841.69 right above the most recent resistance.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Dax keeps strong
30 minutes into the channel, stop for tomorrow is at 6841.69 right above the most recent resistance.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Dow Jones - Basic Materials
Some Ellioticians have called the 2009 low a generational bottom and open the possibility that the Dow is in an expanded flat formation.
Wave B could be 1.236 or 1.382 of A in an expanded flat, with a target for B at 13292 or 13590. B should stop near 13600 for this being true.
Of the Dow groups, Basic materials looks the weakest with the likelihood of B wave already ended. My stop for this week is at 283.16, any daily close below this level is a strong signal of a change of trend.
30 minutes Basic materials already in a downtrend
Wave B could be 1.236 or 1.382 of A in an expanded flat, with a target for B at 13292 or 13590. B should stop near 13600 for this being true.
Of the Dow groups, Basic materials looks the weakest with the likelihood of B wave already ended. My stop for this week is at 283.16, any daily close below this level is a strong signal of a change of trend.
30 minutes Basic materials already in a downtrend
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Market update
The Dow Jones Industrial closed below an important trend line today, it needs a 0.14% - below today last price to give the first short signal since December 20, tomorrow at the close.
The Dax continues relentlessly up, a 1.07% drop is needed tomorrow for a short signal.
The Russell has been giving mixed signals for the last couple of days, today again it closed on short, a 1.25% + gain at tomorrow’s close will reverse the short.
Basic materials, the smallest weight group in the Dow is in daily short mode since February 10.
Financials hold about 10% weight in the Dow, it barely closed below the 271.11 support today. 1.33% or above up close tomorrow is a long signal again.
The Dax continues relentlessly up, a 1.07% drop is needed tomorrow for a short signal.
The Russell has been giving mixed signals for the last couple of days, today again it closed on short, a 1.25% + gain at tomorrow’s close will reverse the short.
Basic materials, the smallest weight group in the Dow is in daily short mode since February 10.
Financials hold about 10% weight in the Dow, it barely closed below the 271.11 support today. 1.33% or above up close tomorrow is a long signal again.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Next week mechanical signals
This is a 10 day volatility chart for the Dow jones Industrials, not to be confused in any way with the VIX, it is based in the price ranges. My experience is that a low volatility reading is good to trade in either direction, most of the times I’m going to make some money with a low volatility reading but only and this is a big but, if I’m right in the market direction. After the volatility starts going up, the portion of my trading capital invested in daily trades go out of the market.
The Elliot principle definitively is the best tool for timing and market direction but I don’t obsess. That being said, I’m waiting for a reversal or big pause but only after my mechanicals signals coincide.
The Russell 2000 hit a sell signal last Friday closing below the 820.65 level, that means all my long Russell’s are going at the open next Monday, the continuous method would call for shorting the Russell but this time I’m vacillating if shorting the Russell on Monday or wait for all the indexes to coincide. A Russell close on Monday above 823.59 is a long signal again.
Technology is the largest group in the Dow with over 20% of weight; traders always say that no market movement is real if it doesn’t include technology. Every trend line is steeper than the previous one meaning a breaking of it is not necessarily a short signal only a change in the pace of trend. Anyway with a close on Monday below 740 all my techs long are gone on Tuesday open.
The DAX is 4.74% above the weekly time-span short level for next week.
And if 10 day’s momentum precedes price, here are the Dow levels you should watch next week
The Elliot principle definitively is the best tool for timing and market direction but I don’t obsess. That being said, I’m waiting for a reversal or big pause but only after my mechanicals signals coincide.
The Russell 2000 hit a sell signal last Friday closing below the 820.65 level, that means all my long Russell’s are going at the open next Monday, the continuous method would call for shorting the Russell but this time I’m vacillating if shorting the Russell on Monday or wait for all the indexes to coincide. A Russell close on Monday above 823.59 is a long signal again.
Technology is the largest group in the Dow with over 20% of weight; traders always say that no market movement is real if it doesn’t include technology. Every trend line is steeper than the previous one meaning a breaking of it is not necessarily a short signal only a change in the pace of trend. Anyway with a close on Monday below 740 all my techs long are gone on Tuesday open.
The DAX is 4.74% above the weekly time-span short level for next week.
And if 10 day’s momentum precedes price, here are the Dow levels you should watch next week
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Update
A close below 12623.98 is a bear warning. (- 0.73%)
Below 12582.38 is a strong bear warning (-1.05%)
Below 12582.38 is a strong bear warning (-1.05%)
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