Ten days top
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Monday, September 9, 2013
Russell 2000, things to know for Tuesday
Looking for a quick 1+% in a couple of days trading the Russell, what we need is an up day tomorrow, it could be a marginally gain, even a 0.05% will do.
If the Russell close up tomorrow we’ll have a chance since of all the groups I follow the Rut is the only one with 2 consecutive days of increasing pressure. I’ll post Tuesday after the close with a target.
Is not prediction is reaction.
Shalom,
If the Russell close up tomorrow we’ll have a chance since of all the groups I follow the Rut is the only one with 2 consecutive days of increasing pressure. I’ll post Tuesday after the close with a target.
Is not prediction is reaction.
Shalom,
Sunday, September 8, 2013
S&P 500, a few things you need to know for Monday
1639.30 is support, a close on Monday below this level is a strong indication for shorts, I would wait for the price to close below the channel. The market did overextend until 1627.47 so a short signal this week is under an “it won’t work” suspicion.
Buying pressure range for last Friday was at 1640.61, for next Monday is at 1639.30, longs, au contraire to shorts, need at least two consecutive days of increasing buying pressure. A close tomorrow above buying pressure range gets the longs and edge but is not a buying signal.
I’ll try to post Monday after the close, my analysis of buying and selling pressure ranges is short term, five to ten days top.
Paz,
Buying pressure range for last Friday was at 1640.61, for next Monday is at 1639.30, longs, au contraire to shorts, need at least two consecutive days of increasing buying pressure. A close tomorrow above buying pressure range gets the longs and edge but is not a buying signal.
I’ll try to post Monday after the close, my analysis of buying and selling pressure ranges is short term, five to ten days top.
Paz,
Monday, July 22, 2013
Dow and Tech July 22-2013
Around mid afternoon the Dow continues consolidating. The target for this movement was reached on July 8 but it continued the move for five more days.
15440 is the support for today, any close below that marks my end for this uptrend that started on July 3.
Tech broke down below support last Friday and right now is below the ma(13). A close above 789 today is needed to halt the consolidation. Other groups are trading alongside the Dow; let’s see if Tech is strong enough for taking the markets in the following days.
Brick and mortar world continues to take most of my time, thank you for your patience.
15440 is the support for today, any close below that marks my end for this uptrend that started on July 3.
Tech broke down below support last Friday and right now is below the ma(13). A close above 789 today is needed to halt the consolidation. Other groups are trading alongside the Dow; let’s see if Tech is strong enough for taking the markets in the following days.
Brick and mortar world continues to take most of my time, thank you for your patience.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Dow Jones, Materiales básicos, Petróleo al 12 de Abril 13
Dow Jones, Materiales básicos, Petróleo al 12 de Abril 13
Al cierre del viernes 12 y de acuerdo al peso de cada compañía y de su sector, el Dow Jones presenta una composición por industrias de la siguiente manera:
Materiales básicos 2.99%
Telecomunicaciones 4.65%
Bienes de consumo 10.06%
Petróleo y gas 10.8%
Finanzas 11.01%
Salud 11.54%
Servicios 12.54%
Tecnología 15.72%
Industriales y conglomerados 20.69%
Los grupos materiales básicos, tecnología y petróleo alcanzan un 29.51% del Dow, estos grupos parecen estar en franca decadencia o al menos en una consolidación bajista, de lo que no estamos seguros es que su peso será suficiente para llevarse el Dow a la baja. Bienes de consumo, servicios, finanzas y salud todos juntos constituyen el 45.15% del Dow y son los grupos que siguen llevando el Dow hacia arriba.
Posiblemente los grupos fuertes continúen llevando el Dow hacia arriba por cierto tiempo, de hecho el Dow presentó el jueves una nueva oportunidad de beneficios rápidos cuando al cierre de 14865.14 su volatilidad implica un 1.26% de posibles beneficios hasta 15050 máximo en 7 días, si no lo alcanza en ese tiempo la movida se cansa y posiblemente no alcance el target. 14680 es el stop loss para esa movida al cierre. Yo no voy a especular con esta señal pero la oportunidad está ahí para un beneficio rápido con opciones o un fondo apalancado 2 o 3x.
Volviendo a los grupos, lo preferible siempre es que todos los grupos apunten a la misma dirección, es por eso que estoy ambiguo en estos momentos, de cualquier manera las movidas hacia abajo son nerviosas y rápidas y con un 30% del Dow consolidándose no es el momento de entrar long a menos que sea para especulaciones cortas.
Materiales básicos con “lower highs” es decir precios máximos bajando es un buen prospecto para shorts, yo esperaría un cierre sobre los 282.60 y especular a la baja con la próxima señal short. Los 271 han soportado el precio hasta ahora.
Petróleo y gas con soporte a 655.50 puede ser un candidato short, un cierre bajo 655.5 seguido de un cierre bajo 650 es definitivamente una oportunidad de hacer algo de dinero a la baja con este grupo que todos esperamos siga bajando.
Shalom,
Al cierre del viernes 12 y de acuerdo al peso de cada compañía y de su sector, el Dow Jones presenta una composición por industrias de la siguiente manera:
Materiales básicos 2.99%
Telecomunicaciones 4.65%
Bienes de consumo 10.06%
Petróleo y gas 10.8%
Finanzas 11.01%
Salud 11.54%
Servicios 12.54%
Tecnología 15.72%
Industriales y conglomerados 20.69%
Los grupos materiales básicos, tecnología y petróleo alcanzan un 29.51% del Dow, estos grupos parecen estar en franca decadencia o al menos en una consolidación bajista, de lo que no estamos seguros es que su peso será suficiente para llevarse el Dow a la baja. Bienes de consumo, servicios, finanzas y salud todos juntos constituyen el 45.15% del Dow y son los grupos que siguen llevando el Dow hacia arriba.
Posiblemente los grupos fuertes continúen llevando el Dow hacia arriba por cierto tiempo, de hecho el Dow presentó el jueves una nueva oportunidad de beneficios rápidos cuando al cierre de 14865.14 su volatilidad implica un 1.26% de posibles beneficios hasta 15050 máximo en 7 días, si no lo alcanza en ese tiempo la movida se cansa y posiblemente no alcance el target. 14680 es el stop loss para esa movida al cierre. Yo no voy a especular con esta señal pero la oportunidad está ahí para un beneficio rápido con opciones o un fondo apalancado 2 o 3x.
Volviendo a los grupos, lo preferible siempre es que todos los grupos apunten a la misma dirección, es por eso que estoy ambiguo en estos momentos, de cualquier manera las movidas hacia abajo son nerviosas y rápidas y con un 30% del Dow consolidándose no es el momento de entrar long a menos que sea para especulaciones cortas.
Materiales básicos con “lower highs” es decir precios máximos bajando es un buen prospecto para shorts, yo esperaría un cierre sobre los 282.60 y especular a la baja con la próxima señal short. Los 271 han soportado el precio hasta ahora.
Petróleo y gas con soporte a 655.50 puede ser un candidato short, un cierre bajo 655.5 seguido de un cierre bajo 650 es definitivamente una oportunidad de hacer algo de dinero a la baja con este grupo que todos esperamos siga bajando.
Shalom,
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Market Update Week April 1 –April 5, Support line for the Dow, resistance for Basic materials
The Dow continues unabated in its uptrend treading alongside a perfect 45 degree line, since Feb 1st and with a tiny correction the Dow went from 14009.79 to 14578.74 at close on March 28, for a superb 4% gain in two months.
The Dow gave again a buying signal last Thursday with a 14880 target, the support line for this week is at 14349, the index must lose 1.60% from last week close to signal an end to the uptrend, any closing price this week below 14349 is a signal to exit all Dow Longs.
I suspect this continuous uptrend of the Dow since not all the groups are trading alongside, Basic Materials had a dismal performance in the same period going from 290.09 on Feb 1st to 282.92 at last week close, shedding 7.17 points or 2.47%.
The group gave a short signal on March 25 with a 1.3% target to the downside, March 27 low could be the target so I am not shorting the group, possibly it will overcome its 50 ma halting the down move for a while. This is a weak group making it a favorite short candidate if the market starts consolidating. The 285 level, extremely close the 50 ma is resistance for downs next week.
Positions: In the sidelines.
Good luck to all,
The Dow gave again a buying signal last Thursday with a 14880 target, the support line for this week is at 14349, the index must lose 1.60% from last week close to signal an end to the uptrend, any closing price this week below 14349 is a signal to exit all Dow Longs.
I suspect this continuous uptrend of the Dow since not all the groups are trading alongside, Basic Materials had a dismal performance in the same period going from 290.09 on Feb 1st to 282.92 at last week close, shedding 7.17 points or 2.47%.
The group gave a short signal on March 25 with a 1.3% target to the downside, March 27 low could be the target so I am not shorting the group, possibly it will overcome its 50 ma halting the down move for a while. This is a weak group making it a favorite short candidate if the market starts consolidating. The 285 level, extremely close the 50 ma is resistance for downs next week.
Positions: In the sidelines.
Good luck to all,
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Dow Jones Support March 28
Hello all,
The Dow continues ascending and today it added 0.36% making again a new 52 week high. As it keeps climbing my last target established at 14429 on February 1 was surpassed, so now it is on uncertainty territory.
Definitively is you did not enter early now is not a right time to go long on the Dow’s ETFs, it is an exercise on patience but what I’m doing is waiting on the sidelines for a short or at least a correction on the move since I don’t have a new uptrend target.
What happened was on February 1st I got a new target but also my January 11 target was reached so I was kind of in a dilemma, so in February 5 I sold with my original target in mind, it proved wrong because the Dow Jones kept climbing without crossing the support line for that week, anyway it was a 7.3% leveraged profit in 20 trading days, I really do not believe on buy and hold.
As you can see in the chart, the angle was a near perfect 45 degree so the volatility ignited move was a no brainer. Always suspect a long move with a steep angle since it tends to correct quickly.
Support for this week is at 14278.
Sorry for not posting for a couple of months, I’ll try to make time.
Shalom,
The Dow continues ascending and today it added 0.36% making again a new 52 week high. As it keeps climbing my last target established at 14429 on February 1 was surpassed, so now it is on uncertainty territory.
Definitively is you did not enter early now is not a right time to go long on the Dow’s ETFs, it is an exercise on patience but what I’m doing is waiting on the sidelines for a short or at least a correction on the move since I don’t have a new uptrend target.
What happened was on February 1st I got a new target but also my January 11 target was reached so I was kind of in a dilemma, so in February 5 I sold with my original target in mind, it proved wrong because the Dow Jones kept climbing without crossing the support line for that week, anyway it was a 7.3% leveraged profit in 20 trading days, I really do not believe on buy and hold.
As you can see in the chart, the angle was a near perfect 45 degree so the volatility ignited move was a no brainer. Always suspect a long move with a steep angle since it tends to correct quickly.
Support for this week is at 14278.
Sorry for not posting for a couple of months, I’ll try to make time.
Shalom,
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