SP500, LONG TERM BONDS, NOV 13

Ok, here’s what we know 

In closing prices The SP made a new low at 2032.81 today 14:00 pm, so maybe the move from 2044.89 to 2032.81 is not a retracement of the previous 2033.02 – 2044.89 movement but a new downtrend.

If the downtrend from 10 AM to 14PM today is in fact a new down move, there are three key levels

50 % is already breached

I would say 75% at 2041.87 is the last frontier, if surpassed the probabilities are in favor of a return to 2044.89 or upper.

Candles are reaching the 75% retracement level.

Now, you know I only trade long term bonds contracts and SPY options on the long side and short term, so let’s do the same for the bonds with the TLT as proxy.

I would wait for going long bonds tomorrow:

a)      Close up at 10:00 with a smooth first half hour of trading

b)      If starting low, 118.67 should hold

They say you can’t wish the market into action, I say you can but don’t expect your wishes to be granted.

What I wish for tomorrow for TLT

Price over 119.26 and between the 45 degree channels

Let’s wait and see

At 4PM today

30 year bond ask price 141.08

SP500 mini ask 2036

At 9PM today

7 years note offered at 126.17

30 year bond ask price 141.11

SP500 mini ask 2033.75

Good luck all,