Hi, these are just ideas not recommendations, sometimes I trade my ideas, sometimes I don’t.
Always remember, yours is the responsibility for your trades,
Good luck,
Erick



Thursday, November 13, 2014

SP500, LONG TERM BONDS, NOV 13



Ok, here’s what we know 



In closing prices The SP made a new low at 2032.81 today 14:00 pm, so maybe the move from 2044.89 to 2032.81 is not a retracement of the previous 2033.02 – 2044.89 movement but a new downtrend.

If the downtrend from 10 AM to 14PM today is in fact a new down move, there are three key levels
50 % is already breached

I would say 75% at 2041.87 is the last frontier, if surpassed the probabilities are in favor of a return to 2044.89 or upper.

Candles are reaching the 75% retracement level.



Now, you know I only trade long term bonds contracts and SPY options on the long side and short term, so let’s do the same for the bonds with the TLT as proxy.



I would wait for going long bonds tomorrow:
a)      Close up at 10:00 with a smooth first half hour of trading
b)      If starting low, 118.67 should hold

They say you can’t wish the market into action, I say you can but don’t expect your wishes to be granted.



What I wish for tomorrow for TLT
Price over 119.26 and between the 45 degree channels

Let’s wait and see
At 4PM today
30 year bond ask price 141.08
SP500 mini ask 2036
At 9PM today
7 years note offered at 126.17
30 year bond ask price 141.11
SP500 mini ask 2033.75

Good luck all,

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I am a civil engineer who likes charts, to me, speculating in the markets is both a hobby and a second profession and in my view the stock market is the most honest environment, since it is only your knowledge and preparation that matters. I live, and work in the construction industry, in the Dominican Republic. I read and answer all my mail so please feel free to write sternloinaz@gmail.com Thanks, Erick