Hi, these are just ideas not recommendations, sometimes I trade my ideas, sometimes I don’t.
Always remember, yours is the responsibility for your trades,
Good luck,

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Technical Analysis of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) and long term bonds - Análisis técnico del S&P 500 y de los bonos a 30 años

For over two years the SP500 have been inside a perfect up trending channel until August-September this year when the move began to falter and making the index to break down the lower line.
The index recovered and is now trading in a powerful two year high level, two year highs have different readings, it is true, everybody owning the index is with a profit,  it’s also true that a lot of those people don’t want to lose their benefits.

After the correction in October, the SP its being going up for the last four weeks with an attack angle that may be unsustainable. Most of the time, weekly moves are slow developers; probabilities are that there won’t be a drastic downside this week.  Key levels to watch this week are:  one) the new uptrending line, two) the 1992 level, three) the down channel line in effect since 2013.

October 20 was the date that started this last up trend, the slope is slowing, the weekly advance for the last four weeks is: October 24, 4.12%, October 31, 2.72%, November 7, 0.69%, and last week 0.39%. The key support level for tomorrow is 2026.

A closer look shows 4 days of advance followed by a 4 days pause. It could be a base for resuming the uptrend or a top formation signaling a reversal.  The levels to watch are: 1)If 2040 is surpassed chances are for a new advance, 2) 2035 and 2033 if broken are early warnings.

Long term bonds also trading in a well-defined channel.

Daily chart shows long term bonds in consolidation movement since the end of October, the price is holding above the ma(50) and the support level for tomorrow is 117.83, slightly above the moving average. As prices remain flat the for the last 10 days, the slope is gaining strength

Short term prices in a devastating sideways trend market for a short term trader. The lower highs are trying to break the trading range.

Bonds ended Friday in an uptrend, check the trending lines for any change in the move.

Shalom all,

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