Where’s the bottom ?

“I’m not afraid, but I’m very nervous.”

― John Irving, A Prayer for Owen Meany

I keep trying to get a rebound, fortunately I was able to make my 1+% with my last pick, ABR made a high around midmorning and I was able to cash on my pick selling at 11.99,  however that’s not the way I like to trade cause I can’t be looking at prices all day. Is the volatility here to stay?

The SP500 is trading inside a killer downward channel and really nobody knows when or if it is going to end. As I told you before I trade with stops for opening positions what makes very difficult for me to short unless it is with an inverse ETF. Being said that, if only I would have 10% of John Irving’s talent for writing in my market timing……

The Dow still above the 21 week channel, although it’s a long way to the top, with a great economy there's hope for it yet.

 Anyway, it seems that Dover Corp found a bottom after the October 18^th earnings, volatility for DOV is decreasing.

My stop-buy is at 82.5, if filled and reverse I’m going out at 81.7 tish. As always I’m looking for quick 1 to 3% profit.

Good luck all,

Shalom

Arbor Realty

Some buying in reits

ABR crossed yesterday’s high and the volatility is decreasing

ABT 24/10/18

Swing trading IBM

Its too late for me for more shorts, at least for now.

The oversold market can keep on it or can rebound for a couple of days while the volatility fades.

IBM seems to have a short term bottom of 2 days, one way to play a rebound is buying at yesterday high with the stop loss below today low.

Viel Glück

WFC another swing

Wells Fargo presented a short opportunity with Friday’s close. Look at the textbook head and shoulders pattern with lower high on the right side of the chart.

I love shorts, if they are going to work, they do it quick, unfortunately since its impossible shorting with a stop, you have to follow by the minute to enter.

In the first 30 minutes today, together with the general market uncertainty, I shorted WFC after it broke the HS support at 52.71.  The quick move of more than 2% in a couple of hours made me cover with a quick ≈ 2% profit. Since it takes almost a year for a return of 2% in a safe investment, the profit was too good to pass. Of course, as always, I left profits on the table, it’ll happen again and again.

Sorry about not posting real time this trade, it went too quick.

Shalom,

Swing Trading

Now, let’s see Wikipedia definition of swing trading, “Swing trading is a speculative trading strategy in financial markets where a tradable asset is held for between one and several days in an effort to profit from price changes or 'swings'. A swing trading position is typically held longer than a day trading position, but shorter than buy and hold investment strategies that can be held for months or years. Profits can be sought by either buying an asset or short selling. Momentum signals (e.g., 52-week high/low) have been shown to be used by financial analysts in their buy and sell recommendations that can be applied in swing trading.” And they continue, “Identifying when to enter and when to exit a trade is the primary challenge for all swing trading strategies. However, swing traders do not need perfect timing—to buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top of price oscillations—to make a profit. Small consistent earnings that involve strict money management rules can compound returns over time. It is generally understood that mathematical models and algorithms do not work for every instrument or market situation.”

Well it seems that I have been “swing trading” for a while now, because with short term and smaller profits is how I made my bread and butter. If I may give some advice is this, stocks don’t trade in a vacuum, well at least most of them, swing your trades trying to follow the general market and group, and maybe, just maybe you have a fighting chance.

Let’s take a look at my two last trades, which I made trying to swing with the group.

DTE is a utility with earnings expected to be announced before market hours on 24/10. Its yield is a respectable 3+%.

On Oct 18, even though it closed negative, DTE defined a very short term support at 110.5 after forming a new “higher low”, momentum was building.`

I put my buy order at 110.80, breaking a little resistance, at market close.

Next day my trade worked wonderfully, and I finish the day with a 1% profit, the stock weakened a little at days end but still I kept my trade.

And this is right now, my 110.5 stop loss is kind of far, but various things I don’t like.

45 degree uptrend line broke

0.618 retracement reached; don’t like it, profitable swings should hold way above this line.

Tomorrow is the last day before earnings, should I hold?, get out without a loss?, uhm, I’ll wait for today’s last trading hours maybe.

Shalom alle,