Sunday, April 22, 2012
Dow Jones outlook at 4/22/2012
There are contrarian opinions about 12734.86 or 12710.56 being 4 of C. 12734.86 is a one day retracement while12719.56 took 5 days, again no written rule here but 5 days look better than 1 for a retracement of so long a move.
If 12710 is 4, the next move (5 of C) could take the Dow to 13700 and the 0.618 from 11231.56 would be near 12800 within the proposed 4 at 12710.
In the microscope the move from 13297 to 12710 looks like a five with the following 3 from 12710 to 13131 retracing a 72%. Corrections are never five so if the 13297-12710 was a first wave down, the Dow should not pass 13297.
My mechanical SAR for this week is at 13149.30, any close this week over that level is a cover shorts signal, anyway the 13131 level at 72% should hold. We’ll see next week. If the Dow moves sharply down next week, an 6-9% below the SAR would be the time to take profits in shorts. (Around 12100 – 12200 Dow). Remember, down moves are fast and furious, now is the time to short if your analysis is for a leg down, after 12200 shorting is worthless effort.
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- Erick Stern
- I am a civil engineer who likes charts, to me, speculating in the markets is both a hobby and a second profession and in my view the stock market is the most honest environment, since it is only your knowledge and preparation that matters. I live, and work in the construction industry, in the Dominican Republic. I read and answer all my mail so please feel free to write firstname.lastname@example.org Thanks, Erick